I am an economist in the Economic Research Unit at the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group).

My research interest lies at the intersection of trade, production networks, firm dynamics, and economic development.

In 2023, I completed my PhD in Economics at the University of Oxford, where I remain affiliated with the Department of Economics and the Centre for the Study of African Economies as an academic visitor.

Working papers

Spatial Inequality and Informality in Kenya’s Firm Network

with Peter Wankuru Chacha, Vatsal Khandelwal, and Benard Kipyegon Kirui | new draft coming soon

Abstract
The spatial configuration of domestic supply chains plays a crucial role in the transmission of shocks. This paper leverages transaction-level tax records to study spatial patterns of domestic firm-to-firm trade in Kenya and explores how these may be shaped by the presence of an unobserved informal sector. First, we document stylised facts about formal firms in this setting, revealing a high degree of spatial concentration in the production network, over and above the concentration of aggregate economic activity. Then, using data from the population census and national accounts, we show that informality is particularly prevalent in downstream economic activities and smaller regional markets. We structurally estimate a network formation model and find that accounting for informal firms in a counterfactual network increases the outdegree of firms in regions with the highest levels of informal activity and reduces the dispersion in outdegrees across counties. Further, we find that the higher the informality in a sector and region, the more we underestimate its vulnerability to domestic shocks and the more we overestimate its vulnerability to import shocks.

Selected Work in Progress

Spatial diffusion of services in Kenya

with Peter Wankuru Chacha, Luke Heath Milsom, and Benard Kipyegon Kirui

Published Papers

Supply chains in times of crisis: Evidence from Kenya’s production network

World Development 173 (2024)
with Peter Wankuru Chacha and Benard Kipyegon Kirui
Published version | Blog post for UNIDO | Accepted manuscript | Replication code

Abstract
Trading relationships between suppliers and buyers play a key role in transmitting both local and international shocks. We use transaction-level data from Kenya to study the relevance of a firm's domestic network position and links to international supply chains in determining its trajectory during the COVID-19 crisis. We document that firms with high exposure to import and export markets tend to be larger, older, and employ more workers. The specialisation of direct importers, often intermediaries, on international markets made them very vulnerable to the initial COVID-19 shock. Exporters, one-third of whom operate in primary sectors, experienced a less severe decline in sales. We find that both importers and exporters adjust their domestic supply chains in response to international trade shocks - before and during the crisis alike. Sourcing from international markets does not crowd out domestic purchases, while sales abroad and at home can act as substitutes. Diversified domestic supply chains helped firms to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and recover more strongly.

Taxing investments in the Asia-Pacific region: the importance of cross-border taxation and fiscal incentives.

World Tax Journal 8(2), pp.193-223 (2016)
with Katharina Nicolay
Published version | ZEW working paper

Other research output

Changing mobility patterns and food price dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya and Uganda

with George Kariuki Kinyanjui and Doreen K. Rubatsimbira
Bank of Uganda working paper | IGC report | Policy brief

Abstract
Real-time price data collection during crises is crucial for informing policy responses, but can be challenging due to fast-changing consumption and mobility patterns. We adopt a crowd-sourcing approach to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on prices of essential food items in Kenya and Uganda. Combining this price data with information on changes in mobility patterns, we find that a 10 percentage point reduction in mobility leads to a 0.3 percent and 1.5 percent increase in food prices in Kenya and Uganda, respectively. Our results are robust across a variety of empirical specifications, but we cannot conclusively rule out a zero effect in Kenya. Furthermore, our findings indicate that mobility patterns continue to impact price dynamics beyond the initial shutdown phase.

Mapping Kenya’s production network

with Peter Wankuru Chacha and Benard Kipyegon Kirui

In brief
We discuss how tax returns can be used to map Kenya's domestic firm and describe the network's fundamental properties. Where possible we document how those properties align with firm networks in other contexts for which similar data are available.