I am an economist in the Private Markets Department (DEC-IFC) of the World Bank Group. My research interests lie at the intersection of trade, production networks, firm dynamics, and economic development.
In 2023, I completed my PhD in Economics at the University of Oxford, where I remain affiliated with the Department of Economics and the Centre for the Study of African Economies as an academic visitor.
I am a member of the World Bank’s DaTax — a lab to study taxes, firms and jobs using microdata.
Working papers
-
Spatial inequality and informality in firm networks
The spatial configuration of domestic supply chains plays a crucial role in the transmission of shocks. This paper investigates the representativeness of formal sector firm-to-firm trade data in capturing domestic trade patterns in Kenya, a context with high informality. We document stylized facts showing that formal sector trade exhibits a distinct spatial concentration relative to overall economic activity. Linking transaction-level data with data on informal economic activity, we estimate a structural model and construct a revised network that accounts for informal firms. We find that formal sector trade flows underaccount for trade within regions and across regions with stronger social ties. The higher the incidence of informality, the more we underestimate vulnerability to domestic shocks and overestimate exposure to import shocks. -
Formal labor market dynamics and development
Abstract Latest draft (May 2026)This paper studies formal employment dynamics using linked employer–employee data from eight countries spanning a wide income range from Kenya to Chile. First, we show that formality rates increase with development, both between and within countries, because more workers enter the formal sector, not because they spend more time in formal jobs. Second, formal labor market fluidity increases with development, as workers hold more formal jobs, spend less time in each job, and less time between jobs. Third, greater fluidity is associated with higher life-cycle wage growth, which is largely accounted for by within rather than between-firm wage gains.
Selected work in progress
-
Cross-country stylized facts on firm networks
-
Growing services: Firm dynamics beyond the city
-
Financial frictions along supply chains
-
Supply chain impacts of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
Publications
-
Supply chains in times of crisis: Evidence from Kenya’s production network
Trading relationships between suppliers and buyers play a key role in transmitting both local and international shocks. We use transaction-level data from Kenya to study the relevance of a firm’s domestic network position and links to international supply chains in determining its trajectory during the COVID-19 crisis. We document that firms with high exposure to import and export markets tend to be larger, older, and employ more workers. The specialisation of direct importers, often intermediaries, on international markets made them very vulnerable to the initial COVID-19 shock. Exporters, one-third of whom operate in primary sectors, experienced a less severe decline in sales. We find that both importers and exporters adjust their domestic supply chains in response to international trade shocks — before and during the crisis alike. Sourcing from international markets does not crowd out domestic purchases, while sales abroad and at home can act as substitutes. Diversified domestic supply chains helped firms to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and recover more strongly. -
Taxing investments in the Asia-Pacific region: the importance of cross-border taxation and fiscal incentives
Other research output and writing
-
Chapter on services in VoxDevLit on industrial development
-
Innovation in green technologies. An opportunity for businesses in low and middle income countries?